TEXAS-SIZED PREDICTION
Trump just handed the Senate to the Democratic Party
Last week, we discussed the increasingly favorable political environment for Democrats as we steam toward the crucial midterm elections in November.
In that piece, I referenced a couple of recent polls from The New York Times and NPR that show a Republican Party in descent and a Democratic Party on the rise.
From that write:
“… there are signs everywhere that upwards of 70 percent of Americans do not like what is happening in their country right now. Whether that matters or if it is too late is still up for debate, but at this moment, America still has a shot to save itself in the nick of time. Even in this redistricted mess of a country, if things continue to go along this way Democrats will take the House, and actually have one helluva chance of taking the Senate.”
Things have gotten no better for Republicans since then. Tuesday night they once again slammed a door on their toe, and did all they could to help the suddenly fleet-footed Democrats to win their first statewide election in Texas in 30 years.
I know, I know, we’ve heard this one before, but when Republicans in the state voted for Donald Trump’s despicable Ken Paxton to run against Democrat James Talarico for that Senate seat in November, they gave us all permission to dream the impossible dream.
By putting his decaying thumb on the scale for his fellow crook, Paxton, Trump all but wiped out the chances for incumbent Rep. Senator John Cornyn to do what he has been doing since ascending to the Senate 24 years ago: win.
Thanks to Trump, impressionable Republicans in Texas overwhelmingly supported "a true MAGA warrior" who like so many MAGA warriors before him has little regard for the law. Paxton has been indicted on felony securities fraud charges, bribery, dereliction of duty, obstruction of justice and abuse of the public trust, just to name a few violations.
Did I mention that this lawless lout is the state’s attorney general? Can we at least stop for a minute to consider the absurdity of this? We are now to the point that if you really want to make an impression on Trump, it’s best doing it by abusing the public’s trust.
Talarico wasted no time framing Paxton’s crooked political picture by releasing a video Tuesday night.
In it he says:
"Something just happened in Texas. The most corrupt politician in America just became the Republican nominee for the United States Senate." He accused Paxton of using his office to “enrich himself.”
He added:
“That kind of corruption is the rot at the core of this broken system. It’s why we can’t afford anything. It’s why we can’t get ahead no matter how hard we work.”
Paxton is eminently more beatable than Cornyn, so I’ll just say this out loud right now: Talarico will beat Paxton.
Are you still there?
What’s more, the cantankerous Nate Cohn of The New York Times actually has an astonishing take on this one that reads almost too good to be true. Without saying he agrees with my pick, he strongly agrees it is a very distinct possibility.
In his piece on Wednesday, A Blue Texas May Be More Than a Dream for Democrats, he lets the numbers do the talking, and they are shouting at a Texas-size upset in the Lone Star State. He cites two chief reasons to buttress his argument:
Paxton’s absurd candidacy: The man is a walking crime wave, and in the middle of an ugly public divorce. Because really, what kind of woman could stand to be around such human rot?
A monumental shift in Hispanic voting tendencies since the 2024 election.
Cohn:
“Texas is one of the most diverse states in the country, and national polls show Democrats surging back in support among young and nonwhite voters — and especially Hispanic voters.”
More:
“In the latest national polls, Mr. Trump’s gains among Hispanic voters have vanished — and the Republican grip on Texas is in danger as a result. The latest New York Times/Siena poll is representative: It shows Democrats ahead by 30 points, 54 percent to 24 percent, among Hispanic registered voters nationwide. That’s better than Joe Biden’s margin in 2020 and getting close to Hillary Clinton’s margin in 2016.”
One more for the win:
“Or consider another example: Imagine we adjusted the results of the last presidential election by shifting each racial demographic group’s support to match the latest Times/Siena poll results. Based on the poll’s findings, Texas would be expected to tilt Democratic in this national political environment.”
Texas would be expected to tilt Democratic in this national political environment.
Amazing is the best adjective I can come up with. Texas has been Democrats’ great white whale for decades. Time and again, we hear how close they are only to come up short — and in too many cases wildly short.
Not this time. And I’ll bet my sterling reputation on that.
And while we are floating on air, another prediction: When the Democrats win in Texas it will translate to a majority in the Senate.
If this becomes a true “wave” election — and I believe it will — Democrats should be expected to win what should be tight races in Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio.
By holding three seats — Georgia, New Hampshire and Michigan — and flipping Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, the Senate is theirs.
But since we are soaring at 30,000 feet, there are yet more combinations to unlock the Senate for Democrats in this suddenly balmy political environment above all the dark-gray clouds we have been stuck in since November, 2024.
Alaska, and their popular Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, would be very much in play for a flip, and it would not shock me if one or two of five other states — Iowa, Montana, South Carolina, Florida and Nebraska — swapped a Republican for a Democrat.
The nut of all this? It is not crazy to say the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the Senate Blue in November.
In fact, I expect it.
This would put a screeching halt to the Trump regime’s odious agenda, but maybe even more importantly would protect the Supreme Court from any further Republican erosion for a minimum of two years.
As bad as this 6-3 radical Right Supreme Court has been, picture what a 7-2 advantage would like if, God forbid, something happened to one of the three liberal justices on the Court, or even what a 6-3 advantage would like if Trump can convince (threaten) one of the older justices on the Right to drop out, so he could nominate another smug liar in the Brett Kavanaugh mold who would be around to help wreck America for another 30 years.
Something simply has to be done with this Supreme Court, but I’ll hold fire on that one for another day. For now, the American voters must do their part to ensure things don’t get worse, and that means showing up to flip the Senate five months from now.
Thanks to Trump, it is right there for the taking.
(D. Earl Stephens is the author of “Toxic Tales: A Caustic Collection of Donald J. Trump’s Very Important Letters” and finished up a 30-year career in journalism as the Managing Editor of Stars and Stripes. You can find all his work here, and follow him on Bluesky here.)
Fingers crossed!!!
I grew up in a blue Texas...not so long ago...💙💙💙